Upcoming elections and their effect on forieigners in Mexico

[StrykerGT2001]

I just wanted to toss this out, since I'm sure some of you have been around since the last presidential transition. Just wondering what you guys thought/have heard. I'm not trying to start an arguement or even talk deep politics, just wonder what the effects will be on visas, currency valuation, and potential economic and corruption problems.

Pretty much it seems like an Obrador vs Madrazo race, as Felipe Calderón trails both in the polls by a large margin.

[moisheh]

I doubt you will see any changes for tourists or foreigners. The one thing you might watch for is a big currency devaluation. At one time in Mexico when ever there was a new President the new regime would discover the books were cooked and that the debt had increased. Thus a devaluation. But hasn't happended lately. AS for changes. No matter who is in power the dinasaurs from the PRI still run the show.

[Quién Soy Yo?]

The race is between Lopez Obrador of the PRD and Calderon of the PAN. Mazrazo can't win. Lopez Obrador has slipped badly in the public opinion polls and Calderon has been rising. Though, Lopez Obrador has been in the countryside campaigning and trying to build an organization and his preference numbers will likely rise later in the campaign (remember, the campaign is more than 6 months away). If PRI loyalists come to a realization that their candidate doesn't stand a chance of winning many might form a coalition campaign near the end with the PAN, to deny Lopez Obrador and PRD the Presidency. PRI will, though, exert continuing influence in Congress. Lopez Obrador could win, but Congress might cut his balls off like they've done with Fox who's been a relatively good President these past 5+ years (considering Congress' refusal to work with him for the good of Mexico).

If a leftist government does take office the USA will be a bit jittery, the financial markets might take a momentary downturn in reaction, but life will go on. The USA (and other countries) worked with Mexico during the years of PRI dictatorship and domestic civil unrest, government-sponsored murders and torture, collapse of the currency, etc. An adjustment period will be necessary, but, if Lopez Obrador learns that the rhetoric of a campaign is different than rhetoric employed when one governs, all should be well. On the other hand, if Lopez Obrador adopts a personal style simiar to Chavez of Venezuela, the likely result will be strained relations with the USA and Mexico's economy could suffer some. Lopez Obrador and PRD will want to deliver some results to Mexicans as a result of his/their election. And the big prize is relaxed/improved immigrantion policies with the USA. He won't get 2 inches of progress on the topic if he talks like Chavez, and he and PRD will be sent to the dungeon by his fellow countrymen in future years.

The President of Mexico has limited powers. Congress is still where things get done. And Congress will likely remain in the hands of opposition parties if Lopez Obrador wins the Presidency (as it will no matter who wins the office).

Don't count-out the PAN and Calderon. He's a good candidate and has an excellent background. Business likes him, as do many foreign governments (including the USA and some major European powers). Fox has been a breath of fresh air, and many people may seek to continue a PAN government together with a Congress controlled by opposion parties.

About your currency question: many economists think the Peso is overvalued, that 13 - 15 to the US Dollar is where it ought to be. If the Mexican government stops propping-up the peso maybe it'll float freely to that slightly devalued level. Though, I don't anticipate a major devaluation like we saw in years past. When Fox took office there wasn't a devaluation. Mexico's much more stable, financially, today than it was 6 years ago (thanks in part to the enormous windfall it's earning from the high price of crude oil).

On the topic of land: it would be suicide for Mexico and any Mexican federal government at this point in time, and in the forseeable future, to nationalize land holdings of foreigners.

All good questions, and appropriate given the election campaigning and the legitimate curiosity we foreigners have.

[davide]

Opinion polls are just that. Money bets say that Lopez Obrador will be the next wearer of the red, white and green sash. MLO will concentrate on luring campesinos away from the PRI, and winning alliances with entities like the CTM and Petroleum Workers Union. I look for pressure to keep staples including fuels and electricity, as well as alimentos basicos at or near zero inflation. MLO may encourage the Mexican sugar industry to go after Archer Daniels Midland and the US corn syrup lobby. I also look for a lot of smoke and mirrors in nearly defunct instutitions like FONATUR. CFE will get a shot of new funding and be allowed to raise secondary tier rates. I look for government spending to go up because of newly sponsered projects especially government bankrolled housing, and a few billions of pesos for IMSS and ISSSTE.

Of course, predicting is utter witchcraft so let's have fun and wait and see how things are when reality comes into play.

[brink]

Two months ago, I would have bet heavily on Montiel. Now, it is wide open. Like QSY, I would say that Calderon is better than his poll numbers and AMLO worse, but anything can happen.

For TOURISTS, the only inconvenience is that election day may bring limitations on alcohol says. For RESIDENTS there are possible upheavals with a devaluation (1976, 1982, 1988, 1994) or nationalization of bank deposits (1982). I am holding off on the purchase of real estate for another 13 months.